Hillary's Alamo? Updated TX Delegate Projections

by: MattTX

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 11:08:21 AM CST

About a week ago, I projected that Hillary Clinton would beat Barack Obama statewide by about 5%. But because of Texas' Byzantine delegate selection rules, I projected that Obama would come out ahead in the pledged delegate race, 98-95.

But many new polls of Texas have come out in the last few days. I used these polls to improve and update my model and my projections. My new projections, by LoneStarProject (LSP) region:

Click below the fold for much, much more.

Become a Texas Precinct Captain for Barack Obama!

by: MattTX

Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 18:16:42 PM CST

Call me a cynic, but when I heard the Obama campaign saying it wanted precinct captains, I thought that this was just impossible rhetorical bluster. Sure, they might get a few precinct captains in a handful of precincts, but for the vast majority of precincts, I assumed that it would be impossible to find someone willing to be a precinct captain.

Today I am not so sure about that.

There is No Such Thing as the Texas Primary Part II: Delegate Projections

by: MattTX

Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 02:08:49 AM CST

Previously we examined delegate allocation and the caucus process in Texas. The short version is that:

1. Texas has 193 pledged delegates, as well as 35 unpledged delegates
2. The Statewide Primary vote, by itself, determines no delegates and is merely a "beauty contest," except insofar as it translates into delegates elected in State Senate Districts, or through caucuses (in order to participate in caucuses, one must also have voted in the primary). It is very much possible that whoever wins the sum of the Senatorial District Primaries will not win the majority of Texas' delegates.
3. 126 pledged delegates will be allocated proportionally in 31 separate primary elections conducted in each of Texas' State Senate Districts.
4. 67 pledged delegates will be allocated through Texas' caucus system, the first round of which will be held in precincts across Texas at 7:15 PM on March 4th. 42 of these will be rank and file "at large" delegates, and will ultimately come from ordinary people who participate at their precinct caucuses, while 25 will be party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs).

Click the link below read the rest:

Newspaper Articles on the Texas Primary/Caucus Hybrid System

by: MattTX

Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:44:22 AM CST

There is no such thing as the Texas Primary, Part I

by: MattTX

Fri Feb 08, 2008 at 16:21:06 PM CST

Over the next month or so, you will hear many people talk about the "Texas Primary," to be held on March 4. I am here to let you in on a little secret - there is no such thing as the Texas Primary.

On the night of March 4, CNN and MSNBC will announce to the world that either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton has won the Texas Primary, on the basis of the statewide popular vote.

What There Isn't

There is no Statewide primary. Absolutely no delegates will be awarded on the basis of the statewide vote. That is 0 delegates. None.

Barack Obama could "win Texas" by 10%, by racking up large margins in Dallas, Houston, and Austin, by maintaining his strong margins among African American voters, and by holding Clinton to the ~20% victories among Hispanics that she won in New Mexico and Arizona, as opposed to the ~33% victory she won among Hispanics in California.

Hillary Clinton could also "win Texas" by 10%, by taking California sized support among Hispanics, by limiting Obama's margins in Texas' multiple large cities, and with the help of rural and small town voters in East and West Texas.

What There Is

On March 4, 32 seperate elections will be held in Texas. There will be:

• 1) 31 State Senate District Primaries
• 2) The Texas Caucuses