Obama's Map to Victory

by: mariochampion

Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:23:49 AM CDT

There is a stellar analysis of how Democratic turnout and Obama's longterm organizing (exemplified by last weekend's Vote for Change kickoff) point the way towards an Obama electoral college victory in November.

Now, of course, things are so far from sewn up -- i believe we are still in the gathering threads and needles stage -- but with deep analysis of demographics, trends, polling and exit data Poblano has made some very educated guesses. Guesses which "managed to peg both Indiana and North Carolina in ways that drew widespread attention and outperformed all pollsters and RCP combined."

More below...

What these maps do not take into account, as an astute commenter notes at BOR, is the presence of Rick Noriega and other strong statewide candidates to draw out Latinos, seen as Obama's weakest Texas demographic.

I certainly believe voters who identify with the fuzzy 'Hispanic voter bloc' will surely see the calamity in electing John '100 years war' McCain. Obama has built an impressive coalition of the like-minded already, and with the ability to focus on a general election strategy cleverly out-sourced to a million (and growing) local volunteers, i know this coalition will be stronger and broader come November.

Just what we need to Turn Texas Blue!