Clinton needs landslide victories to close the delegate gap

by: News

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 17:23:08 PM CST

Because Obama won landslide victories across the country in February, he has a nearly insurmountable pledged-delegate lead.  Therefore, Clinton would need landslide victories today to close the delegate gap.  Even though Texas is Clinton's "firewall", we're confident that our grassroots operation will prevent Clinton from taking the delegate lead.

Hillary's Math Problem
Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.
Newsweek

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate's Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton.

...

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.